Sao Paulo vs. Atletico MG Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 25 August 2025

As Serie A reaches Round 21, Sao Paulo is set to host Atletico MG in a match of dodging importance for both teams. Sao Paulo, currently sitting 7th with 29 points, comes off a mixed bag of recent results, including a triumphant penalty shoot-out win over Atletico Nacional in the Copa Libertadores. But with critical players sidelined by injuries, including Ryan Francisco and Jonathan Calleri, they’ll need a robust team effort to secure a win. The bookmakers favour them with odds of 1.81.

Atletico MG, although 11th in the standings, has shown recent improvement. They’re fresh off a hard-fought victory against Godoy Cruz in the Copa Sudamericana and possess offensive potential through Hulk, despite his suspension. The odds for an Atletico MG win are 4.65, but they remain underdogs.

Both teams have displayed vulnerabilities, particularly conceding late goals. With Sao Paulo susceptible in the 76-90 minute window, this could be a thrilling end-to-end contest.

Given Atletico MG’s recent form, our recommendation is betting on Atletico MG (+1), offering good value considering their uptick in performance.

Sao Paulo vs Atletico MG Prediction & Betting Tip

For this encounter between Sao Paulo and Atletico MG, our recommended betting tip is to go with Atletico MG (+1) on the European Handicap.

Sao Paulo vs Atletico MG Prediction
Betting Tip	Odds
Atletico MG (+1)	1.84 @ Unibet

Here’s why this betting tip is promising:

• Sao Paulo has shown inconsistency lately, with one draw and one loss in their last couple of matches.
• Atletico MG is on an upward trajectory, having secured a win and a draw in their previous two games.
• Historically, Atletico MG has not lost to Sao Paulo in their last four away encounters in this competition, which adds confidence to our prediction.

Making this bet takes into consideration the recent form and historical head-to-head results, offering a balance of risk and return.

Sao Paulo vs Atletico MG Odds

When looking at the odds for the upcoming Serie A clash between Sao Paulo and Atletico MG, Sao Paulo is the bookmaker’s favourite despite their recent mixed form.

Sao Paulo vs Atletico MG Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Sao Paulo	1.81
Draw	3.28
Atletico MG	4.65

In addition to the win options, the recommended bet of Atletico MG (+1) is also worth considering due to its promising value. This betting tip is based on Serie A’s Round 21 oddsmakers who see potential in Atletico’s recent form and their strong historical performance against Sao Paulo.

Given Sao Paulo’s recent instability and Atletico MG’s upward trajectory, these odds present an interesting opportunity for punters. The home side’s odds reflect their slight advantage, but don’t discount Atletico MG pulling off an upset or at least keeping the game tight.

Sao Paulo Team Analysis

Sao Paulo Recent Performance

Sao Paulo’s recent performance has been a mixed bag, reflecting their inconsistency in form. Over their last five matches, they’ve managed one win, two draws, and one loss.

Breaking it down:

• Sao Paulo 1-1 Atletico Nacional (won 4-3 on penalties) in the Copa Libertadores Final Stage
• Sport Recife 2-2 Sao Paulo in Serie A
• Atletico Nacional 0-0 Sao Paulo in the Copa Libertadores Final Stage
• Sao Paulo 2-0 Vitoria in Serie A
• Athletico Paranaense 1-0 Sao Paulo (lost 3-0 on penalties) in the Cup

Their average goals scored per game stands at 1.80, showcasing decent offensive capabilities, but they’ve managed just 2 clean sheets in their last 5 outings, indicating vulnerability at the back. With several key players injured, including Jonathan Calleri and Ryan Francisco, the team has had to work extra hard to maintain balance both in attack and defence. This inconsistency and the absence of critical players could be significant factors in their upcoming match against Atletico MG.

Sao Paulo Key Players

For Sao Paulo, the focus will be on their top scorer Andre, who has netted 5 goals this season. Expected to lead the attack, he will be crucial in breaking down Atletico MG’s defence. Additionally, midfielder Pablo Maia will play a key role in linking defence and attack, having been essential in dictating the tempo of the game.

Key battles to watch include Andre against Atletico MG’s central defenders, especially Vitor Hugo, who will have the task of shutting down Sao Paulo’s top scorer.

Expected lineup for Sao Paulo:

• Goalkeeper: Rafael
• Defenders: Nahuel Ferraresi, Alan Franco, Sabino
• Midfielders: Maik, Alisson, Pablo Maia, Luan Santos, Patryck
• Forwards: Lucas Moura, Aldemir Ferreira

With several first-team players out, including Jonathan Calleri and Ryan Francisco, Sao Paulo’s depth will be tested, and their ability to unlock Atletico MG’s defence will be pivotal.

Sao Paulo Suspensions & Injuries

Sao Paulo is grappling with a series of notable injuries that might significantly impact their performance. Key players like Jonathan Calleri and Ryan Francisco are sidelined with cruciate ligament injuries, with Calleri expected back by early December 2025 and Francisco out for the season. Their absence could severely hinder Sao Paulo’s attacking options.

Additionally, Luiz Gustavo (illness), Oscar (back injury), Robert Arboleda, and Wendell (both thigh injuries) are all anticipated to return by early September 2025. The depleted squad means Sao Paulo will have to rely on their depth and younger talents to step up in these crucial fixtures.

While no suspensions are reported, the injuries could alter Hernán Crespo’s tactical approach, potentially making the team more conservative to shield a somewhat weakened defence and midfield. This adjustment will be essential against a resurgent Atletico MG side looking to capitalize on these vulnerabilities.

Sao Paulo Tactics and Formation

Sao Paulo Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-5-2
• Defensive Line: Nahuel Ferraresi, Alan Franco, Sabino
• Midfield Maestro: Pablo Maia
• Attacking Duo: Lucas Moura, Aldemir Ferreira
• Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in the last five games

Sao Paulo’s approach under Hernán Crespo leans heavily on a well-balanced 3-5-2 setup. At its core, this formation provides a solid defensive backbone thanks to the trio of Ferraresi, Franco, and Sabino. The midfield quintet, with Alisson and Pablo Maia at the heart, allows for fluid transitions from defence to attack.

In the final third, Lucas Moura and Aldemir Ferreira form a dynamic forward pair expected to exploit spaces behind the Atletico MG defence. However, the lack of key players could see Crespo adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on maintaining possession and breaking quickly during transitions.

Atletico MG Team Analysis

Atletico MG Recent Performance

Atletico MG has shown an upward trajectory in their recent form, earning them a mix of results in their last five matches: two wins, two draws, and one loss. This cutting-edge form reflects their growing confidence and performance on the pitch.

Breaking it down:

• Godoy Cruz 0-1 Atletico MG in the Copa Sudamericana Final Stage
• Atletico MG 1-3 Gremio in Serie A
• Atletico MG 2-1 Godoy Cruz in the Copa Sudamericana Final Stage
• Vasco da Gama 1-1 Atletico MG in Serie A
• Atletico MG 0-1 Flamengo (won 4-3 on penalties) in the Cup

With an average of 1.80 goals scored per game in the last five matches, Atletico MG demonstrates solid attacking potential. However, their defence has kept just one clean sheet in those games, pointing to some defensive vulnerabilities. This recent form suggests that they are capable of challenging Sao Paulo, particularly given their impressive away performance history in this fixture.

Atletico MG Key Players

Atletico MG’s key player to watch will undoubtedly be their top scorer, Hulk, who has netted 4 goals this season. Despite being suspended for this clash, his absence will put more onus on other forwards such as Reinier and Junior Santos to deliver in the attacking third.

Additionally, Gustavo Scarpa will play a pivotal role in the midfield battles, likely up against Sao Paulo’s Pablo Maia. Scarpa’s ability to control the game and create chances will be crucial for Atletico MG to break down Sao Paulo’s defence.

Expected lineup for Atletico MG:

• Goalkeeper: Everson
• Defenders: Natanael, Iván Román, Vitor Hugo, Guilherme Arana
• Midfielders: Alan Franco, Igor Gomes, Gustavo Scarpa
• Forwards: Reinier, Junior Santos, Gabriel Teixeira Biel

These players will need to step up significantly to make up for the missing Hulk, as every point remains crucial in their push up the table.

Atletico MG Suspensions & Injuries

Atletico MG is facing several significant suspensions and injuries that could impact their performance. Their top scorer, Hulk, is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards, which is a huge blow to their offensive capabilities. Additionally, key players like Dudu, Junior Alonso, and Tomas Cuello are also suspended due to various card-related bans.

Injury-wise, Caio Maia is out with a cruciate ligament injury until early October, Cadu is recovering from knee surgery, and Patrick Silva is expected to return in about 1-2 weeks from a back injury. Lyanco and Renzo Saravia are both dealing with muscle injuries but should be back within a week or two.

These absences will test Atletico MG’s depth and require other squad members to step up in these crucial fixtures, particularly against a challenging opponent like Sao Paulo.

Atletico MG Tactics and Formation

Atletico MG Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Defensive Line: Natanael, Iván Román, Vitor Hugo, Guilherme Arana
• Midfield Engine: Alan Franco, Igor Gomes, Gustavo Scarpa
• Attacking Trio: Reinier, Junior Santos, Gabriel Teixeira Biel
• Defensive Record: One clean sheet in the last five matches

Atletico MG under Cuca typically employ a 4-3-3 setup, designed to provide a balanced approach with defensive solidity and attacking flair. In this formation, the defence is anchored by Vitor Hugo, while Gustavo Scarpa orchestrates play in the midfield, aiming to dictate the game’s tempo and connect plays to the forwards.

With Hulk suspended, much of the attacking responsibility falls on Reinier and Junior Santos to break down Sao Paulo’s backline. Atletico MG’s strategy will likely revolve around quick transitions and exploiting the flanks, looking to catch Sao Paulo off-guard, especially in the later stages of the game, a period when Sao Paulo has shown vulnerability.

Sao Paulo vs Atletico MG Head-to-Head Statistics

Looking at the last five meetings between Sao Paulo and Atletico MG, the results indicate a closely contested rivalry. The matches have been tightly fought, with the results as follows:

• Atletico MG – Sao Paulo 0-0 (2025-04-06, Serie A)
• Sao Paulo – Atletico MG 2-2 (2024-11-24, Serie A)
• Atletico MG – Sao Paulo 0-0 (2024-09-13, Cup)
• Sao Paulo – Atletico MG 0-1 (2024-08-29, Cup)
• Atletico MG – Sao Paulo 2-1 (2024-07-12, Serie A)

Here’s a breakdown of these encounters:

• Draws: Two games ended in goalless draws, highlighting the defensive strength of both teams.
• Wins: Atletico MG secured two wins, one in the Serie A and one in the Cup.
• Goals: Despite the tight contests, goals have been relatively scarce, pointing toward strong defensive performances.

Overall, Atletico MG has the upper hand, having avoided defeat in their last four encounters away against Sao Paulo. This history could provide them with a psychological edge going into their upcoming clash.

Odds accurate as of 23.08.2025 00:30, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.